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Kirk Ellis. Understanding Your Own Creative Thoughts. David Casto. The River Of Plenty. These systematically and artificially normalized performance scores were then used to assume the normality of performance, thus effectively begging the question entirely. Even as decades of previous skepticism is described, it is made clear that no one has made a serious challenge to the reign of the bell curve.

The presumptive paradigm was a stark-naked emperor all along. Of course, a vanquished paradigm needs to replaced by something better able to make sense of the data. To rectify this, they propose that performance lies on a power curve or Paretian distribution, as seen in the figure below. In five different analyses, they show how a Paretian curve fits different performance assessments far better than the bell curve.

In a follow-up article , they detail the consequences of their star-focused conclusions:. Nonperformance-based incentives that homogenize outputs become counterproductive — e. Downsizing is even more disastrous. It either pushes stars to leave a failing organization, or causes stars, who often have higher pay or atypical work arrangements, to become the target of elimination in a homogenizing organization.

Old management practices, which seek to increase performance by pushing the entire distribution to the right, focus wrongly on those least likely to add significantly to outputs. The resource-based theory of competitive advantage concludes that winning companies are driven by resources that are valuable, rare, inimitable, and non-substitutable.

The problem with human capital is that if job performance falls on a normal distribution, competent work is essentially none of those things. And on close inspection, the data showing the existence of a Paretian distribution in performance have their own problems. To measure success in academia, they track the number of publications in top journals in the field; for politics, electoral victories are counted a measure so weak the authors themselves take the time to criticize it ; entertainers are judged on the basis of award nominations; and athletes on the basis of career accomplishments or on-field failures.

Of these four, only the last two seem to directly measure performance, with the others instead measuring response to performance. These accomplishments will attract those who are highly motivated by such accolades. Designing organizations around such attention- and reward-seeking behavior has been shown to have problems. But there is more than one way to judge success, and those judgements will be particular to the organization. Apple will have a different assessment of design than Google. Stars to one organization may not be stars to the other. The elephant in the room is context.

For three of the analyses they use in their paper, this is simply false.


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The peers reviewing top journals are beset by biases similar to any other human. Politicians from different parties do not play on a level playing field in gerrymandered districts. The opportunities for different film and television actors are highly influenced by age, race, and gender. All of these factors and more are highly indicative of the fact that performance assessments in these fields are clearly not context-independent. Sports is a more useful analogue because performance is measured directly. Returning to baseball, we can understand playing right field and batting against an extensive variety of pitchers is relatively consistent independent of major league team, and true performance levels are easily gauged and compared.

But subtle tweaks lead to disastrous results for even the biggest stars. When softball pitcher Jennie Finch faced off against the best major league players at numerous points in her career, they were helpless despite the markedly reduced velocity of the pitches and increased ball size — the major leaguers simply could not operate in a context where the ball was travelling at trajectories different from what they had trained for.

Watson has nothing on what’s coming next

Baseball is a strictly ordered set of rules and behaviors. The individual levels of performance are strongly affected by small changes to the game. If the fences were moved in 50 feet, the premium on power hitters almost evaporates.

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If the bases were moved 10 feet further from each other, speedsters relying on stolen bases and infield hits would become a relic of the past. In , home runs and walks significantly increased when the pitching mound was lowered from fifteen inches to ten inches. The game of baseball is a rigid context. Beyond the major leaguers humbled by Jennie Finch, there are almost innumerable other examples of stars failing in new contexts.

After his most famous work was published, Albert Einstein spent decades trying in vain to make sense of quantum mechanics. Rather than ignoring or mitigating context, we should seek to understand it as deeply as possible. Any job is going to require some amount of learning from previous experiences to be used in a new context. Many types of learning produce effective memory, but poor transfer to related areas. And as demonstrated in the examples above, one of the things that noticeably inhibits transfer is highly contextualized learning.

There have been investigations of this tendency. Carraher, et al studied the use of mathematics by Brazilian street children. However, those same abilities deteriorated in a formal classroom context. Supposedly relatable word problems were significantly more difficult for them to solve, while formula-based math proved nearly unnavigable e. Jean Lave showed similar effects in an analysis of purchasing decisions made while grocery shopping.

In another example, there are many products in the marketplace which claim to increase cognitive performance. One of the most popular — or at least most advertised — is the online brain-training company Lumosity. There is essentially no transfer of learning to new contexts. These examples point to a general notion: skills are more specific and more difficult to transfer than many of us would like to believe.

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While this means a star in one organization might suffer performance declines in a different environment, it also could mean that the masses huddled up against the y-axis of the power curve are simply stuck in the wrong context themselves. Trevor Hunter. Finding Greatness. With the closer distance from the mound, I think it really surprises them how fast the pitch gets there. The ball movement throws them off.

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